Minister Tumwebaze Assures Coffee Farmers as Global Prices Fluctuate, Highlights Government Support Measures

The Minister of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Hon. Frank K. Tumwebaze has sought to reassure Ugandan coffee and cocoa farmers and traders over recent price fluctuations, saying the changes are largely linked to developments in international commodity markets rather than a collapse in global demand.

In a statement addressing concerns raised by farmers, traders and other stakeholders, Hon. Tumwebaze said international coffee and cocoa markets are currently undergoing a period of adjustment and volatility, driven largely by changing expectations around global supply and inventories.

He said Uganda, as an internationally integrated producer and exporter, cannot insulate its commodity prices from developments in major producing and consuming countries.

“Coffee and cocoa are internationally traded commodities,” Tumwebaze said, explaining that prices in Uganda are influenced by production levels, inventories, weather, shipping costs, currencies, consumption patterns and purchasing decisions in major global markets.

Brazil, Vietnam drive pressure on coffee prices

According to the Minister, the recent pressure on coffee prices has particularly been associated with increased availability from major producers Brazil and Vietnam.

He cited August–September 2026 international market analysis indicating that coffee prices had come under pressure as Brazil's harvest reached the market and Vietnam increased exports.

Tumwebaze also pointed to projections by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) showing growth in global coffee production.

By September 3, 2026, Arabica coffee had fallen to about US$3.03 per pound, a five-week low, while Robusta was trading at around US$3,426 per tonne, according to the market information cited by the Minister.

The developments, he said, demonstrate that Uganda's coffee price movements are part of a wider international market adjustment rather than a uniquely Ugandan problem.

Uganda's recent export figures also reflect pressure on the sector. The country exported 846,376 bags of 60 kilogrammes in July 2026, compared with 997,105 bags in July 2025. Export earnings fell from US$250.7 million to US$204.1 million. Reuters separately reported the decline at about 15.1 percent in volume and 18.6 percent in value.

Cocoa prices also experience volatility

Tumwebaze said cocoa has experienced similar fluctuations on international markets.

He cited a September 3 report showing London cocoa prices falling by 5.9 percent in one session after reaching a one-year high, while New York cocoa also declined by 5.9 percent. 

On September 18, market data cited by the Minister showed December New York cocoa falling by about 7.1 percent in a single day, reaching a seven-week low amid expectations of increased near-term supplies.

The Minister linked some of the pressure to developments in Côte d'Ivoire, where cocoa production for the June 2025–June 2026 period had reportedly increased by 30 percent, while shipments in the current international cocoa marketing year were substantially higher than in the previous year.

He said improved supply expectations and higher inventories have therefore contributed to the recent correction in cocoa prices.

Uganda's coffee prices show mixed performance

Tumwebaze said the domestic coffee market has not experienced a uniform decline across all coffee categories. 

According to figures presented by the Ministry, average farm-gate prices in September 2025 stood at:

Robusta Kiboko: Shs6,000–7,000 per kilogramme

Robusta FAQ: Shs13,500–14,000 per kilogramme

Arabica parchment: Shs14,000–15,000 per kilogramme

Drugar: Shs13,500–14,000 per kilogramme

In the first half of September 2026, indicative prices were:

Robusta Kiboko: Shs5,000–6,000 per kilogramme

Robusta FAQ: Shs11,500–12,000 per kilogramme

Arabica parchment: about Shs15,500–16,000 per kilogramme

Drugar: Shs14,000–14,500 per kilogramme

The Ministry's figures show that Robusta FAQ, considered a more appropriate benchmark for commercial-quality coffee, had declined by about Shs2,000 per kilogramme, equivalent to approximately 14.5 percent.

Arabica parchment, however, recorded a different trend, rising from about Shs14,500 per kilogramme in 2025 to Shs15,750 in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 8.5 percent.

Recent market reporting has similarly shown farm-gate FAQ prices around the Shs11,500–12,500 range and Arabica parchment around Shs15,000–16,000 per kilogramme in September.

Drought adds pressure to Uganda's coffee production

Tumwebaze also identified prolonged drought and unusually high temperatures in several coffee-growing areas as another major challenge facing Ugandan farmers.

He specifically mentioned parts of Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule and Luwero, where water stress has affected coffee flowering, cherry development, bean filling, processing out-turn and quality.

According to the Minister, adverse weather conditions are estimated to have contributed to an out-turn approximately 10 percent below the normal average in affected areas.

The production challenge has also been reflected in export volumes. Government figures cited by Reuters show that Uganda's July 2026 coffee exports dropped to 846,376 60kg bags, compared with 997,105 bags in July 2025, while earnings declined to US$204.1 million.

Quality increasingly determining what farmers earn

Tumwebaze said the changing market is also making traders more cautious and selective about the quality of coffee they purchase.

Farmers who deliver well-dried, properly harvested and good-quality coffee may receive substantially better prices than those supplying immature, poorly dried or mixed coffee.

The Minister therefore urged farmers not to respond to falling prices by harvesting immature coffee or compromising post-harvest handling.

He also emphasized that a fall in the selling price does not automatically mean that farmers are making losses.

For example, a farmer receiving Shs12,500 per kilogramme after previously earning Shs13,750 has experienced a reduction in income per kilogramme, but that alone does not establish that production costs are higher than revenue.

According to Tumwebaze, profitability depends on several factors, including production costs, productivity per acre, coffee quality, post-harvest handling and the form in which the coffee is sold.

He said Uganda's coffee farming models indicate that farmers who improve productivity and undertake basic value addition can break even when FAQ coffee is selling at around Shs7,000 per kilogramme, although farmers severely affected by drought can experience significant financial losses.

Government steps up support to farmers

Tumwebaze said the government is not sitting back as farmers face the combined effects of international price volatility and climate-related production challenges.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries will continue to monitor international and domestic coffee prices and provide indicative market information to farmers and stakeholders.

Government will also strengthen coffee production and productivity through rehabilitation and establishment of new coffee gardens, while supporting recovery mechanisms aimed at improving farmers' resilience to drought and other climate shocks.

The Minister said the government is currently supporting farmers with fertilizers and other productivity-enhancing inputs in key producing regions.

The fertilizer being distributed under the Presidential Directive is intended to improve access to inputs, restore soil fertility and increase agricultural productivity.

Irrigation and climate-smart agriculture

Tumwebaze said Uganda is also strengthening irrigation as part of its response to increasing climate variability.

MAAIF is working with the Ministry of Water and Environment and other relevant ministries, departments and agencies under an inter-ministerial approach to expand access to water for agricultural production.

The government intends to scale up irrigation schemes across the country while promoting smaller, farmer-managed irrigation systems.

Through the Climate Smart Agricultural Transformation Project, farmers are also being supported with improved planting materials, appropriate technologies, water-management practices and knowledge to help them adapt to changing climatic conditions.

Tumwebaze expects some price recovery

Looking ahead, the Minister said the international coffee and cocoa markets will continue to be influenced by weather and production developments in major producing regions.

For coffee, he identified Brazil's harvest and Vietnam's Robusta exports as major factors that will continue influencing the international Robusta market.

If global supplies continue increasing, prices could remain under pressure, while weather disruptions or lower-than-expected production could tighten supplies and support prices.

For cocoa, Tumwebaze said improved supply expectations and higher inventories have contributed to the recent correction, although weather and production risks remain important factors.

Against this background, the Minister said it is reasonable to expect some price recovery and greater stability over the coming six months, although the international market will remain sensitive to changes in supply and weather.

Farmers urged not to panic

Tumwebaze called on farmers to remain focused on productivity and quality rather than panic over short-term market movements.

He urged farmers not to harvest immature coffee, not to compromise quality and to pursue value addition, noting that moving from raw Kiboko into better processed and graded coffee can significantly increase returns. 

He also called on traders to continue supporting farmers while maintaining transparent and quality-based pricing.

“Uganda's international reputation is a national asset,” the Minister said, stressing the need to protect the quality of Ugandan coffee and cocoa in international markets.

Tumwebaze acknowledged that price stability alone would not solve the challenges facing farmers, saying government must also address underlying production constraints, particularly drought, prolonged dry spells and access to agricultural inputs.

He said Uganda remains an important coffee producer and exporter and that the fundamentals of the country's coffee sector remain strong.

The Minister added that MAAIF will announce further short- and medium-term strategic interventions to support farmers and other actors across Uganda's coffee and cocoa value chains.