NUP’s Rubaga South Gamble May Hand NRM a Political Lifeline
The National Unity Platform (NUP) is facing one of its toughest political tests in Kampala after its decision to back Nassolo Euginea as flagbearer for Rubaga South, sidelining incumbent Aloysius Mukasa. What was once seen as a safe opposition seat could now become a battleground, offering the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) its clearest chance in years to reclaim ground in the capital.
A Strong Mandate in 2021
In the 2021 general elections, Aloysius Mukasa stormed Rubaga South with 49,501 votes, riding on NUP’s People Power wave and his own grassroots mobilisation. Mukasa’s appeal was not built on slogans alone. He was visible in ghetto communities, markets, and youth structures the very networks that form the political lifeblood of Rubaga South. His mandate was clear, and for many residents, unquestionable.
By contrast, Nassolo Euginea who challenged Mukasa’s 2021 victory in court before later withdrawing her petition has struggled to cultivate the same grassroots identity. Critics say her presence is often limited to election cycles, leaving gaps in everyday constituency engagement.
The Strategic Misstep
Analysts argue that NUP has miscalculated by imposing Nassolo as its flagbearer. The party, which rose to national prominence as a movement for the ordinary Ugandan, now risks being seen as detached from the very grassroots it claims to represent.
“This is not just a Rubaga South issue,” said one political commentator . “It strikes at the heart of NUP’s brand as a people’s party. If they ignore the voice of the local voter, they lose credibility not only here but across Kampala.”
A Window for NRM
The controversy has created fertile ground for NRM strategists. Kampala has long been opposition territory, but NRM knows that fractured loyalty in just one or two constituencies can swing results.
Party insiders say the ruling party is likely to seize the moment with a three pronged approach. Presenting its candidate as a “stable alternative” amid NUP’s infighting.
Deploying government resources and local projects to win back disillusioned communities. Targeting Mukasa’s grassroots supporters, who may feel betrayed by the opposition’s decision.
“This is exactly the kind of division NRM thrives on,” one analyst observed. “If NUP’s base stays home in protest, NRM only needs a modest swing to reclaim Rubaga South.”
Local Outrage and Rising Risks
Already, anger is simmering in the constituency. Market vendors and ghetto youth the very groups who turned out en masse for Mukasa in 2021 have voiced frustration, with some warning they could abstain or even vote NRM.
“We stood with Mukasa when he stood with us,” said a vendor in Katwe. “If NUP doesn’t respect our choice, why should we respect theirs?”
Such disillusionment, if it hardens, could cripple NUP’s mobilisation machinery. Without Mukasa’s organising network, voter turnout risks collapsing in areas where opposition enthusiasm has historically carried the day.
The Stakes for Kampala and Beyond
Rubaga South is more than a single seat. It is a symbol of opposition dominance in Kampala. A loss here would not only give NRM a morale boost but also signal that NUP’s urban stronghold is not unshakable.
Unless NUP quickly reconciles with Mukasa’s supporters or repairs its grassroots image, it risks turning Rubaga South into a cautionary tale proof that internal missteps can undo even the strongest electoral wave.
As the 2026 race approaches, the constituency will be closely watched. Will NUP rebuild its bond with the people of Rubaga South, or will NRM ride the cracks to an unlikely victory?
