Elgon North Opinion Polls Point to Strong Lead for Hon. Irene Nafuna Muloni Ahead of January 15 Elections

As Uganda heads into the decisive phase of the 2026 General Elections, newly released opinion poll findings from Elgon North Constituency indicate a commanding lead for former Energy Minister and current Bulambuli District Woman MP Hon. Eng. Dr. Mrs. Irene Nafuna Muloni, placing her well ahead of her closest challenger.

According to the poll, Hon. Muloni commands 69 per cent voter support, compared to 27 per cent for Hon. Gerald Nangoli, while 4 per cent of respondents remain undecided. The findings come barely days before voters in Elgon North head to the polls on 15th January 2026, making the results a significant indicator of prevailing voter sentiment.

Track Record Emerges as Key Determinant

Analysts involved in the poll attribute Hon. Muloni’s strong performance largely to her long-standing track record in public service, both at constituency and national levels. Voters interviewed consistently cited her experience, visibility, and record of delivery as major factors influencing their preference.

Over the years, Hon. Muloni has been associated with major national projects, particularly during her tenure as Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, where she played a role in the expansion of electricity generation and rural electrification. In Elgon North, supporters point to infrastructure improvements, education support initiatives, and sustained engagement with local leadership structures.

“Voters appear to be prioritizing tested leadership as the election approaches,” one analyst involved in the poll observed. “There is a clear inclination toward continuity and experience, especially at a time when people want leaders who can effectively articulate local interests at the national level.”

Challenges Facing Hon. Nangoli

Hon. Gerald Nangoli, who garnered 27 per cent support in the poll, faces an uphill task as the campaign enters its final stretch. Sources familiar with the local political terrain suggest that his previous bid for district chairperson, coupled with perceptions around performance and leadership effectiveness, has negatively affected his standing among voters.

The poll findings indicate a noticeable decline in his support base within key parts of the constituency, particularly among voters who place high value on demonstrable outcomes and long-term engagement.

Methodology and Local Insights

The opinion poll was conducted through consultations with senior regional political analysts, complemented by insights from local intelligence networks embedded within the constituency. This approach, according to the poll’s coordinators, was aimed at capturing a broad and realistic picture of voter attitudes across Elgon North.

While the methodology relied heavily on qualitative intelligence and regional political mapping rather than a nationwide scientific sample, analysts say the consistency of responses across different localities strengthens the credibility of the findings.

Road to January 15

With only days left to polling day, Elgon North Constituency is shaping up as a closely watched contest. While Hon. Muloni’s 69 per cent lead suggests a strong likelihood of victory, analysts caution that voter turnout, last-minute mobilization, and undecided voters could still influence the final outcome.

Nevertheless, as things stand, the polls paint a picture of an electorate leaning heavily toward experience, proven leadership, and continuity—factors that currently favor Hon. Irene Nafuna Muloni as Elgon North prepares to cast its votes on 15th January 2026.

As the countdown continues, all eyes will be on whether the poll projections translate into actual results at the ballot box.